A question we get all the time at Hayes Wealth Advisors is, “What is the retirement number I should try to hit?” Wanting to target a portfolio amount, such as $3 million is a natural instinct, and having a target is certainly important. However, from a financial planner’s perspective, asking how much money you should accumulate by retirement isn’t necessarily the question we should be focused on. Retirement is influenced by several factors, and each can have a significant impact on when and how successfully you can retire. These factors include when you plan to retire, your income leading up to retirement, the assets you plan to sell or keep, and most importantly, your expenses during retirement as well as how much you are saving along the way. Understanding Expenses First, knowing how much you spend is critical to understanding what you will need in retirement. You can reach what you believe is the “right” retirement number, but if your spending in retirement is higher than expected, that number may no longer be enough. Your retirement needs are directly connected to the lifestyle you want to maintain, which means your expenses are one of, if not the biggest variable in determining how much you ultimately need. You also need to consider factors such as when your mortgage will be paid off, whether you will have a health insurance gap before Medicare eligibility, whether you expect to help support adult children or aging parents, and whether you expect to receive Social Security. This last one is particularly important as the Social Security Trustees’ 2026 report says the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund is projected to be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032. These are just a few examples that illustrate why expenses are not a static number. They can—and likely will—change over time as your circumstances change. Good retirement planning attempts to account for as many of these variables as reasonably possible.
Understanding Savings The other important number is your savings number. Since the end point of retirement is variable one thing we can adjust along the way is savings rate. That sounds simple but it's far more complex when you account for account types (retirement, taxable, non-liquid), businesses owned, real estate and the tax implications of all of these. Some examples: Cash can be an appropriate place for short-term needs and emergency reserves, but it generally has lower long-term growth potential than a diversified investment portfolio. As of August 2026, the FDIC's national average savings-account rate is just 0.38%, although some high-yield savings accounts offer rates above 4%. Other assets, such as real estate and stocks, have historically generated different levels of return and carry different risks, costs, and liquidity considerations. For example, the S&P 500 has historically produced strong long-term returns, but those returns have also come with significant periods of volatility and loss. Real estate can appreciate over time, but carries costs that need to be accounted for such as property taxes, insurance, maintenance, repairs, and is also subject to periods of volatility and loss. Putting together a plan for each of these types of savings and focusing on whether you are consistently meeting your savings goals, you have a tangible target you can work toward throughout your career. Summary Hopefully it makes sense why “What is my retirement number?” is not the right question. Your retirement number is a moving target. And I don't know about you, but a moving target is much harder to hit than one that is standing still. That's why it's so important not to simply pick a number to reach by the time you retire and assume that number will be enough. While it might be tempting to ask Claude or ChatGPT to calculate a simple number to target, hopefully this helps explain why it's better to regularly evaluate what you need to save to stay on track for the retirement you want. Retirement forecasting is an important part of our planning process with each client because you should know how you are progressing toward your retirement goals. If you don't yet have a plan for reaching a secure retirement but would like to start thinking through what retirement could look like for you, please feel free to set up an appointment on my calendar to talk through what retirement planning could look like for you. Have a great rest of your Sunday! Alexis, Wealth Advisor Hayes Wealth Advisors “It’s the little details that are vital. Little things make big things happen.” — John Wooden | 
